Market Commentary – March 2025
Richard Eller
Certified Financial Fiduciary®
Welcome to 2025—somehow, it got here faster than expected. Daylight savings is a week away, baseball spring training is starting, and the stock market continues to keep us on our toes.
Let’s break down what is happening and, more importantly, what it means for your investments.
The Tech Trap & Diversification Reminder
Tech stocks have had an incredible run, but history reminds us that no sector is invincible. The early 2000s tech bubble saw major stocks drop by 30% or more, though eventually there was a rebound. While I am not predicting a crash, concentrating too much in one sector is like keeping a pet scorpion—it stings when you least expect it. A well-diversified portfolio is your best defense. Risk management is not about reacting to trends, it is about staying ahead of them.
Inflation, Recession & Market Noise
Quick refresher: Inflation erodes purchasing power; a recession signals an economic slowdown. With recent strong job numbers, a recession is unlikely, but not impossible. Inflation acts like an after-tax tax. The market looks ahead, while most consumers focus on the present. That disconnect can lead to costly emotional investing decisions.
The current political headlines regarding global tariffs, domestic federal employee layoffs, and other related presidential actions have left our nation polarized. Some see the new policies as longoverdue progress; others worry about significant economic fallouts. Without a crystal ball, the best investment strategy is ensuring your portfolio aligns with your risk tolerance for the longer term.
Risk Tolerance & Investor Discipline
Risk tolerance is not just about how much risk you can take, but how long you can endure it. Markets rise and fall. Investors tend to feel bold when stocks are up and anxious when they are down, but long-term success comes from consistency and discipline.
The best investors filter out the noise. There will always be headlines predicting doom or boom. For example, companies like Coke, Johnson & Johnson, and Microsoft do not change business models based on daily stock prices, and neither should you if your portfolio aligns with your goals.
Welcome to Your Retirement Party
Picture a retirement party where four uninvited guests show up: Inflation, Depreciation, Taxation, and Longevity.
• Inflation and Depreciation quietly shrink your savings every year, without warning.
• Longevity sticks around as long as you do. You spend money until your last day.
• Taxation? With the rising federal debt and spending, it is the never-ending withdrawal.
Together, they all nibble away at your hard-earned money. The best defense? A clear, disciplined growth strategy, that I can help craft and adjust for my clients as the landscape changes.
What We Do & Why It Matters
Our process is structured and disciplined, and we adhere to the highest fiduciary standards. That is where my team and I come in. Behind the scenes in our Connecticut and Florida offices, and backoffice operations in Virginia, quite a bit happens, which is our job. And we love it.
We work hard to ensure two things for our clients: Transparency and Financial Clarity. I take this responsibility seriously. You should understand what you own, and why you own it. If anything is not clear, let’s talk. This is your hard-earned money. It deserves expert oversight and respect, and communication with you.
What else to know? Long-term investing for the sake of potential account growth is great. We all want to see our account balances grow over time. However, it is important to remember that most retirement accounts have a singularly critical function, which is to provide retirement income and cash flow. Sure, non-retirement accounts can help grow our liquid net worth, always important in the face of ever-spiraling prices of goods and services. Still, it is the retirement accounts that do the heavy lifting.
I am always mindful that your retirement accounts will provide a large, if not substantial portion of your retirement income. This is especially true at age 73 when you must withdraw a certain amount from your retirement accounts called a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD). The larger your retirement account, the larger your RMD, which translates into enhanced income. Always remember, growth investing is great, but it is all about the retirement cash flow.
Beware of the News
Not all information is equal. Cable TV, newspapers, and the internet all push bold headlines, but they do not always tell the full story. Investors today are bombarded with opinions from wellintentioned friends, colleagues, and family who turn personal views into “facts.” Finger pointing occurs every time there is a threat of a U.S. Government shutdown. That is why I urge my clients to focus on fundamentals and facts, not fear and speculation. Mark Twain once said: “If you do not read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you’re misinformed.”
What’s Ahead in 2025?
2025 brings uncertainty—interest rates, politics, and economic data will shape markets. Growth is still expected, but at a measured pace. And no, more tech stocks are not always the answer. Longterm success comes from a diversified strategy, discipline, and patience.
Final Thoughts
I am a Certified Financial Fiduciary®, which means I work for you—without conflicts of interest. No sales pitch. Just straight talk, without sugar coating.
For decades, I have helped clients navigate uncertainty, manage risk, and build long-term wealth. Markets always fluctuate, but success comes from having a clear and transparent strategy, discipline and patience, and experienced guidance, not frequent trading.
If you have questions or want to further review, reach out. Every investor has different goals and risk tolerances. Let us make sure your portfolio is working for you—not against you.
Thank you for your time,
Rich.
This content is for informational purposes only. The views and opinions expressed here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Spire Wealth Management LLC, and its affiliates. There can be no assurance that any investment products or strategy will achieve its investment objective. There are risks associated with investing, including the entire loss of principal invested. Past performance has no guarantee of future results. Investment Advisory Services offered through Spire Wealth Management, LLC. Richard Eller is an Investment Advisor Representative of Spire Wealth Management, LLC. operating under Blueprint Financial Group, an independent firm.