Market Commentary: Volatility, Geopolitics, and Keeping Perspective
Richard Eller
With headlines dominated by geopolitical tensions and global conflict, it’s natural to feel a bit uneasy. Markets do not like uncertainty, and when uncertainty rises, volatility usually follows. Right now, most of that uncertainty centers around energy costs.
Oil prices have moved higher this year as the conflict involving Iran has raised concerns about the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow chokepoint passage through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows. When energy prices rise, inflation pressures can follow. And if oil were to move meaningfully higher from here, we might see a short-term market pullback in the range of 5%–10%.
That is not a prediction—just perspective.
One area worth watching closely is diesel fuel. Diesel is what powers the real economy. It moves food, materials, packages, and ultimately the goods that end up on store shelves.
When diesel costs rise, it tends to show up quietly but persistently in the form of higher grocery bills, increased delivery costs, and pressure on household budgets. Businesses feel it as well, as transportation and input costs compress margins and can eventually impact company earnings.
We have seen this movie before.
On March 28, 2025, new tariff policies were announced and the markets reacted quickly and sharply as investors tried to process the implications. The initial move was swift—and negative. But that was not the full story.
As clarity improved, sentiment shifted just as quickly. Just two weeks later, on April 9th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 3,000 points in a single day.
That’s how markets behave. They react first… and think later.
In the short term, markets are driven by headlines, institutional positioning, and algorithmic computer-driven trading. Trying to outmaneuver that environment can feel like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. Over time, however, markets tend to refocus on what truly matters: earnings, fundamentals, and long-term business growth.
The tariff-driven volatility in the spring of 2025 is a good reminder of how quickly strong companies can recover once that initial uncertainty begins to settle. See the chart below.
| Company | Pre Tariff Price April 2, 2025 | Selloff Low | Decline | Closing Price Dec 31, 2025 | Recovery Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple (AAPL) | $221.32 | $171.67 | 22.4% | $271.86 | +58% |
| Boeing (BA) | $166.40 | $139.39 | 16.2% | $217.12 | +56% |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | $326.13 | $273.94 | 16.0% | $572.87 | +109% |
| Alphabet (GOOG) | $156.96 | $146.58 | 6.6% | $313.80 | +114% |
| JPMorgan (JPM) | $241.60 | $216.87 | 10.2% | $322.22 | +49% |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | $795.00 | $726.24 | 8.6% | $1,072.89 | +48% |
| Walmart (WMT) | $88.20 | $81.79 | 7.3% | $117.41 | +44% |
Price data shown solely for illustration of market volatility and recovery patterns. Not a recommended trade. All data supplied from YahooFinance.com.
The companies above did not fundamentally change their businesses during that period. What changed was sentiment, and how investors reacted to uncertainty at that moment.
That’s an important distinction.
Often, it is not the event itself that drives short-term market movement, but how investors respond to it.
We are seeing a similar dynamic today. Conflict-related headlines, especially those tied to energy and inflation, can move markets in the short run. But they do not necessarily alter the long-term outlook for well-positioned companies or thoughtfully diversified portfolios.
For investors, particularly those who are retired or approaching retirement, market movements can feel more personal. Your portfolio is not just a number, but rather it represents income, security, and peace of mind.
That said, reacting to short-term headlines by stepping away from equities can introduce a different kind of risk—which is the risk of falling behind inflation or outliving your assets.
That is a risk we take very seriously as our approach remains grounded in structure and discipline. Equities continue to serve as the long-term growth engine of a portfolio, while diversification helps manage risk across different market environments. We do not build portfolios for headlines, but instead we build them for lifetimes. Still, we remain sensitive to market volatility and will take a defensive posture when the circumstances warrant change.
At the end of the day, we are part-owners of real businesses. Those businesses continue to operate, generate earnings, and grow, regardless of what the market does on any given day.
As a Fiduciary, my role is to help you stay focused on what matters and not veer off course by short-term market noise. Markets will always fluctuate, but long-term success tends to come from consistency, not reaction. Note, when investing, success rarely comes from reacting. It comes from remaining consistent.
Even if nothing has changed on your end, it may be prudent to reconnect and make sure everything aligns with your goals, income needs, and overall plan. These conversations are often the most valuable during periods like this, even when no changes are necessary.
Feel free to reach out and we can schedule time to connect.
Thank you for your continued trust,
Rich
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This content is for informational purposes only. The views and opinions expressed here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Spire Wealth Management, LLC, and its affiliates. There can be no assurance that any investment products or strategy will achieve its investment objective. There are risks associated with investing, including the entire loss of principal invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment advisory services offered through Spire Wealth Management, LLC. Richard Eller is an investment advisor representative of Spire Wealth Management, LLC, operating under Blueprint Financial Group, an independent firm.